Overproduction, possible tariff retaliation - interesting times for tree fruit growers

WENATCHEE — An old saying – said to be Japanese, and said to be a curse – talks about living in interesting times. While it’s always an interesting time to be in the tree fruit business, times are especially interesting now. 

The election of Donald Trump back to the presidency revived talk of tariffs and trade wars. Tree fruit could be among the industries caught in the crossfire, but as of March 14, most of the tariff talk has been just that – talk. Some tariffs have been imposed on goods from China, and there have been announcements that tariffs will be imposed on Canadian and Mexican goods. However, tariffs on Canda and Mexico have been announced and then postponed. That kind of market uncertainty gets really challenging for ag professionals trying to plan their crops and manage their businesses. 

Michael Schadler, president of the Washington Apple Commission in Wenatchee, said growers face bigger challenges than tariffs, at least right now. 

“There has been a retaliatory tariff by China, an additional 10% on top of the retaliatory tariffs that have been in place since 2018,” Schadler wrote in response to an email from the Basin Business Journal. “China is a market that has been difficult for us since the initial tariffs were put in place, so this new, additional tariff isn’t that big of an impact.”  

Canada and Mexico are the largest markets for U.S. apples. Chris Gerlach, vice president of insight and analytics for USApple, said in a December presentation that Mexico accounted for about 36% of fresh apple exports in 2023-24, the last full sales season. Canada bought another 15%. 

“While there is uncertainty on all sides about how this will play out, and whether our apples might be subject to retaliation by Mexico or Canada; I haven’t heard specifically that uncertainty is having an impact on actual volume shipped at the moment, prior to any retaliatory tariffs being initiated,” Schadler said.  

As of spring 2025, the real issue is that there’s too much fruit out there for growers to make money.  

“The bigger problem is the ongoing supply-demand imbalance, which is creating unprofitable prices for growers. Profitability, of course, is also impacted by high production costs, which have escalated in recent years,” Schadler said. 

It can take a year, and usually a few months longer, to sell all the fruit grown in any given production season. Gerlach said apples harvested in fall 2023 accounted for about 41% of fresh apple sales from August to November 2024. The share of sales of 2023 apples dropped substantially over those four months, as the carryover was sold and the 2024 harvest arrived in stores.  

The 2023 crop was one of those that people would rather not discuss. The Washington State Tree Fruit Association estimated it was the equivalent of about 136.1 million 40-pound boxes. The 2024 harvest was closer to historic averages, about 124 million boxes.  

Jon Devaney, WSTFA president, said in an earlier interview that a crop closer to historic averages produced better returns for growers, but in 2024 they weren’t good enough to overcome rising production costs.  

Apple growers have been through hard years before, of course – just ask the veterans about the late 1990s and early 2000s. Schadler said growers are working on solutions, but it’s a complex issue that requires some tough decisions. 

“All growers are aware that production is too high given the current market prices.  Many have started to reduce acreage but there are also newer orchards just starting to come into full production,” he said. “With so many players involved, and the extended duration of investing in an orchard, it can take the industry longer than desired to find a supply-demand equilibrium.” 

USApple’s 2024 crop analysis said acreage of some varieties, Granny Smith and Cosmic Crisp being examples, was increasing, while others, such as Gala and Red Delicious were declining. Schadler said diversifying into new varieties has its own challenges. 

“As far as moving into new varieties, that can also be a very difficult decision, especially for smaller growers, given the costs involved,” he said. “One has to balance the expense of transitioning to new varieties with whether your existing varieties have a viable market future.  It’s especially difficult to make that investment if your orchards have been losing money in recent years, which is the case for many. “ 

    While retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, including apples, are a possibility, the uncertainty doesn’t appear to be affecting markets, at least not yet.