Health officials slightly optimistic about progress

OLYMPIA — Washington state health officials are guardedly optimistic about the progress being made against the COVID-19 pandemic, but are focusing on getting as many state residents vaccinated to keep that progress going.

“We are seeing some hopeful numbers when it comes to case count statewide, but not in all counties,” said Secretary of Health Umair Shah during an online press conference Wednesday morning. “We’re hopeful this is the beginning of the end of the fourth wave, but we don’t know that yet.”

On Tuesday, Gov. Jay Inslee announced a two-week pause in the state’s evaluation of COVID-19 case rates and hospitalization statistics, leaving all of the state’s 39 counties in their current COVID-19 recovery phase for the next 14 days.

Shah said the Department of Health makes decisions on phase changes after evaluating complete data that is roughly a week old. The decision to pause was based on “incomplete data” from the weekend showing the recent increase in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations were leveling off and even possibly beginning to decrease.

On Tuesday, state health officials reported 253.6 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents statewide for 14 days, from April 13 through April 26, well above the 200 cases threshold to remain in Phase 3. The statewide hospitalization rate of seven people per 100,000 for the week of April 7 through April 23 is also above the fewer than five threshold established in the Roadmap to Recovery program earlier this year.

However, Shah said while case numbers and hospitalization rates were rising, they tended to be among young people — younger than 60 — who spent less time in the hospital being treated for the pandemic.

“We’re cautiously optimistic, but it does not negate that we are in the fourth wave,” Shah said.

In fact, Shah said those older than 60 have fared the best during the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, seeing little increase in case rates or hospitalizations, largely because 70% of that age group is now fully vaccinated.

“Seniors are increasingly protected. We have done our job with seniors,” Shah said.

Shah said getting as many Washington residents vaccinated as possible is key to controlling the pandemic and getting back to normal life, even with the emergence of several more-contagious variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, such as the B.1.1.7 from the United Kingdom, B.1.427 from California and the P.1 variant from Brazil.

In fact, Shah said the state has a new, toll-free vaccination hotline — 833-VAX-HELP (833-829-4357) — and people who have received their vaccine should also help others get vaccinated.

“We’re working to make it easy to get the vaccine with our new hotline, and it will get you information on where vaccines are,” Shah said.

Shah said Washington state is slated to receive around 400,000 doses of all three COVID-19 vaccines next week, and should receive similar numbers as part of the federal government’s allotment to states through the end of May.

Right now, around 38% of state residents are fully vaccinated, Shah said, but if April’s vaccination rates keep up, around 50% of Washington residents could be vaccinated soon.

However, that vaccination rate is dependent upon supply, Shah said. While federal allotments to states, and Washington state’s allotments to its 39 counties, have been based on population, Shah said both are turning to a model based more on need and demand, to ensure as many vaccine doses as possible are used and more underserved communities receive access to vaccines.

However, Shah said he doesn’t use the phrase “herd immunity” to describe what might happen when enough people are immune — either through vaccination or from having had the disease — and is not sure even how many people would need to be immune to affect the spread of the disease.

“I use the phrase ‘adequate vaccine coverage,’” Shah said. “It’s enough vaccine to lessen the risk, and over the next week or two we’ll have more information on that.”

When asked about the possibility of adding vaccine rates as a positive incentive for the recovery program, Shah said his office has talked about adding that as a metric, but has not come to any conclusion.

“It’s a complex equation, trying to find the metrics,” Shah said. “Absolutely, we believe in vaccination, but tying it to the Roadmap to Recovery is hard to judge.”