Economists unsure of lasting impacts virus could have

OLYMPIA — Hundreds of thousands of Washingtonians have filed for unemployment in the weeks since Gov. Jay Inslee’s “stay home, stay healthy,” order, and now as the state prepares for its gradual reopening of public activity, economists are not quite sure how quickly the job market and parts of the economy will rebound.

Don Meseck, regional labor economist for the Yakima and Central Washington region for the Washington State Employment Security Department, explained that he examines unemployment rates and monthly unemployment claims data county-by-county to understand the impact that the COVID-19 virus is having.

The unemployment data Meseck has analyzed this week, from the end of March, shows the early impacts of the state’s response to the virus. The March unemployment snapshot he analyzed and released this week is still “the quiet before the storm,” he said, as he expects the full impact to be evident in the data collected in April.

Initial and confirmed unemployment claims made to the Employment Security Department have risen by over 1,000 percent since the beginning of the outbreak, according to Meseck.

Some of the hardest hit sectors were the food service and accommodation industries, which had seen job growth for what Meseck said was 113 consecutive months, and manufacturing jobs, which had experienced year-to-year job gains before the “stay home, stay healthy” order.

The construction sector and surprisingly the health care and social assistance sectors recorded tens of thousands of initial unemployment claims since the beginning of March.

New guidelines put forth by the governor this week will allow for some private construction work and some elective surgeries and procedures that were previously prohibited.

Patrick Jones, executive director for the Institute for Public Policy & Economic Analysis at Eastern Washington University, said he thinks even as parts of the economy reopen in the state, consumer hesitation from fear of the virus may have some chilling effects on parts of the economy.

“We don’t know what that will look like in certain sectors until there is a vaccine,” Jones said.

Jones said he thinks there could be a trend toward “tele-everything,” from video conference yoga classes to medical appointments over the phone.