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Idaho could have 11-plus patients for every bed in outbreak

by Associated Press
| March 19, 2020 2:27 PM

BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Idaho has just 2,283 hospital beds statewide, and fewer than half of them are empty and available to take new patients on any given day, according to an Associated Press analysis of Centers of Medicare and Medicaid cost reports data.

The number means there likely won’t be nearly enough beds for coronavirus patients if even the most conservative estimates from state epidemiologists are accurate. The demand is more pressing when it comes to intensive care unit beds, with just 282 such beds at hospitals across the state, according to the analysis, and about 54 percent of them already full on an average day.

As the number of COVID-19 cases within the US continues to grow, many hospitals are bracing themselves for an expected onslaught of coronavirus patients. The number of available beds is critical to each facility’s ability to manage the incoming surge.

The AP compiled the data showing bed counts and average occupancy levels at more than 3,000 short-term acute care hospitals in the United States for fiscal year 2018, the most recent publicly available numbers.

State health officials estimate that somewhere between 15% and 35% of Idaho’s 1.7 million residents could be infected with COVID-19 during the course of the pandemic. Most of those cases will be mild, with patients able to recover safely at home. But an estimated 10 to 20 percent of people with COVID-19 need to be hospitalized during their illness, and some end up in ICU beds and on ventilators.

Using the most conservative estimates of both the number of residents likely to get sick, and the number of those people likely to need hospitalization, Idaho could see 25,500 additional people needing hospitalization during the peak of the outbreak.

Put another way, that’s more than 11 people per hospital bed. That doesn’t include the number of people who generally need hospital beds on any given day, for other medical emergencies like heart attacks or strokes.

Idaho Gov. Brad Little’s spokeswoman Marissa Morrison said the governor has been meeting regularly with a special working group put together to address all aspects of the coronavirus outbreak, including hospital capacity.

“It’s been the governor’s priority to flatten the curve, to reduce a spike in the number of cases that require hospitalization,” she said. “That’s been a priority since day one with the coronavirus working group, including working with hospitals to maximize their capacity as needed.”

Morrison said the situation is rapidly changing, and urged people to follow the guidelines recommended by the federal government and the governor: To avoid holding gatherings of more than 10 people, to use drive-thru or pickup options at restaurants and to avoid unnecessary travel and shopping.

For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia. The vast majority of people recover from the new virus

Brian Whitlock, spokesman for the Idaho Hospital Association, also didn’t immediately return a request for comment. Nor did Niki Forbing-Orr, spokeswoman for the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare.

Mark Snider, spokesman for the Boise-based St. Alphonsus Health System, which has three hospitals in Idaho and one in eastern Oregon, said the organization wasn’t releasing its current number of hospital beds or how that number may have changed since 2018. But he said hospital leaders have taken steps to protect patients and ensure that as many beds as possible are available for new patients, including postponing all elective procedures for now.

“We have been looking at this since mid-January and continue to examine our facilities’ resources and staffing. Because we have postponed elective procedures, we are reallocating those personnel to other needs,” Snider said. “Certainly, we still have needs, and the labor pool is very active in helping us meet these ever-changing demands.”

Snider said officials were also examining St. Alphonsus’ capabilities for transferring patients from one hospital to another within the system if necessary. The AP analysis shows St. Alphonsus Health System is one of the most robust in the state when it comes to the number of beds, with 348 hospital beds at its biggest facility in Boise, including about 42 intensive care beds. On any given day, about 126 beds are available to incoming patients, including about 10 intensive care beds.