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Ag markets posted mixed reactions to the USDA reports

by Doane Advisory Services
| September 30, 2014 9:30 AM

The stocks report weighed on corn futures around midsession Tuesday. The quarterly Grain Stocks report stated September 1 U.S. corn stockpiles at 1.236 million bushels, which exceeded industry expectations. That explains moderately bearish futures reaction. December corn futures slumped 2.25 cents to $3.235/bushel in post-report action, while May lost 2.25 to $3.4475.

The soy complex posted a mixed reaction to the USDA data. The soy stocks figure on today’s report looked low to CBOT traders, while the anticipated revision to the 2013 crop proved fell below the forecast average. The soy complex responded poorly in the immediate wake of the release, but turned higher soon thereafter. Traders are very aware of the bumper harvest starting to fill bins. November soybean futures bounced 3.5 cents to $9.27/bushel just before lunchtime Tuesday, while October soyoil sank 0.18 cents to 32.61 cents/pound, and October soymeal gained $0.9 to $309.0/ton.

The USDA reports proved generally bearish for the wheat markets. The Grain Stocks data seemed negative for wheat futures, while the numbers on the Small Grains Summary appeared to hold neutral to mixed implications to market watchers. Thus, prices reacted bearishly to the news, but bounced from the lows. The spring wheat harvest estimate seemed to depress Minneapolis prices. December CBOT wheat dipped 2.75 cents to $4.785/bushel around midsession Tuesday, while December KC wheat sagged 4.75 cents to $5.6175/bushel, and December MWE wheat fell 8.75 to $5.305.

Cattle futures lost their upward momentum Tuesday morning. After spiking upward during the past two sessions, cattle futures lost their upward momentum in early trading. Indeed, the fact that the October future couldn’t sustain its overnight follow-through probably sparked fresh technical selling. October live cattle futures had slipped 0.32 cents to 160.62 cents/pound around midsession Tuesday, while December futures declined 0.57 to 163.90. Meanwhile, October feeder futures surged 0.67 cents to 235.32 cents/pound and January climbed 0.27 to 228.90.

Hog futures are relying on wholesale strength. CME hog traders apparently believe the recent rally in hog and pork values has yet to run its course. Sizeable pork gains apparently seem more persuasive than slipping cash quotes. Bulls probably liked the manner in which futures rebounded from Monday’s early lows. October hogs rallied 0.62 cents to 107.95 cents/pound late Tuesday morning, while December sank 0.12 to 94.72.