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Ag markets turned mostly lower Tuesday morning

by Doane Advisory Services
| September 16, 2014 9:30 AM

Crop futures couldn’t sustain early gains. The Farm Service Agency released its updated numbers concerning acreage enrolled in U.S. crop insurance programs Monday night. It boosted corn acreage and prevent planted acres from its August estimates. Futures rallied in response overnight, but have subsequently turned lower. December corn futures sagged 2.5 cents to $3.405/bushel late Tuesday morning, while May lost 3.0 to $3.605.

The soy complex bounce couldn’t be sustained either. The Farm Service Agency also raised its soybean acreage and prevent planted acres totals last night, which prompted a bullish reaction in the bean and product markets. However, traders are apparently having second thoughts. The fact that November beans failed at their 10-day MA probably prompted technical selling as well. November soybean futures fell 9.5 cents to $9.80/bushel around midsession Tuesday, while October soyoil stumbled 0.28 cents to 32.99 cents/pound, and October soymeal skidded $0.5 to $338.3/ton.

The wheat markets couldn’t sustain FSA gains either. As with corn and beans, wheat futures rallied in response to the FSA acreage data. And just as those markets turned downward, so did wheat values. Ultimately, the global wheat glut and lower international prices seem likely to keep weighing on U.S. prices. News of a big French wheat sale to Egypt emphasized this point. December CBOT wheat slumped 5.5 cents to $4.9525/bushel as the lunch hour loomed Tuesday, while December KC wheat dipped 2.25 cents to $5.84/bushel, and December MWE wheat slid 1.75 to $5.6675.

Beef weakness may be undercutting cattle futures. Although the cash cattle market remains greatly elevated and discounted CME futures look rather cheap in comparison, futures have fallen to start this week’s trading. That probably reflects the ongoing drop in wholesale beef values, which bodes ill for packer demand. October live cattle futures fell 0.60 cents to 155.75 cents/pound in late Tuesday morning trading, while December futures dropped 0.77 to 158.25. Meanwhile, October feeder futures sagged 0.27 cents to 225.57 cents/pound, while January feeders edged down 0.30 to 217.70.

Worries about late-year prospects are weighing on hog futures. Pork cutout values surged Monday, which seems to be supporting the October CME contract, but deferred futures are mostly lower. That may reflect industry concerns about the fourth-quarter outlook and beyond, when supplies will likely be relatively liquid. October hogs rallied 0.32 cents to 106.40 cents/pound around lunchtime Tuesday, while December tumbled 0.77 to 95.07.