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Ag markets turned mostly lower Friday morning

by Doane Advisory Services
| September 12, 2014 9:30 AM

Large supplies are again weighing on the crop markets. Corn futures stabilized Thursday night in the wake of the bearish USDA reports and subsequent price drops to fresh lows. However, prices have subsequently weakened once again, despite early morning news of a sizeable corn sale to an unknown destination. December corn futures slid 2.5 cents to $3.385/bushel late Friday morning, while May sank 2.5 to $3.595.

Vegoil gains may be limiting Friday’s bean and meal losses. Yesterday’s reports were also bearish for the soy outlook, thereby undercutting CBOT futures soon after their release. However, beans bounced somewhat later in the day and continued rising overnight in response to the concurrent palm oil surge. Soyoil futures are rallying today, but beans and meal seemed to lose their upward momentum despite another sizeable sales announcement. November soybean futures inched up 1.75 cents to $9.8325/bushel around midsession Friday, while October soyoil jumped 0.66 cents to 32.16 cents/pound, and October soymeal sagged $1.1 to $337.7/ton.

The wheat markets remain quite weak. Thursday’s crop reports also held generally bearish implications for wheat values. The domestic situation doesn’t seem that bad, but current U.S. prices are above those quoted on the glutted global market. That implies weak export demand, along with feed market competition from the depressed corn market. December CBOT wheat tumbled 8.75 cents to $5.0075/bushel just before lunchtime Friday, while December KC wheat fell 12.0 cents to $5.9425/bushel, and December MWE wheat slumped 12.0 to $5.8075.

Beef losses are apparently weighing on cattle futures. This week’s technical failure and growing cash market pessimism seemed to spark Thursday’s drop in cattle futures. Prices firmed overnight, but have fallen again this morning; that probably reflects the sizeable beef losses posted at midday. October live cattle futures dropped 1.05 cents to 156.32 cents/pound in late Friday morning action, while December futures slumped 0.92 to 158.77. October feeder futures dipped 0.60 cents to 225.00 cents/pound, and January feeders lost 0.80 to 217.17.

Hog futures are struggling amidst mixed spot market signals. Seasonal price optimism powered recent gains in hog futures. However, cash and wholesale prices have turned decidedly mixed late this week, thereby undermining the bullish bias built into nearby CME futures. October hogs fell 0.65 cents to 105.72 cents/pound as Friday’s lunch hour loomed, while December dove 1.07 to 96.12.

Cotton futures are rallying once again. Recent gains suggest ICE cotton traders had anticipated the tighter U.S. supply implied by Thursday’s USDA reports, although the news of surprisingly weak exports likely mitigated the bullish impact. Still, the market is again rising from depressed levels today. December cotton futures rose 0.11 cents to 68.20 cents/pound shortly after noon (EDT) Friday, while March futures ran up 0.38 cents to 67.34.