Ag markets moved mostly lower Monday morning

Reduced frost risk is undercutting the crop markets. The lack of action in the Black Sea region is probably depressing the grain markets Monday morning, but the early revision to the weather forecast seems more important at this point. That is, the anticipated freeze line on the weekend weather forecasts moved northward, thereby reducing the potential damage to the corn and soybean crops. December corn futures fell 6.0 cents to $3.50/bushel around midsession Monday, while May lost 5.5 to $3.715.

The weather forecast also depressed the soy complex. The expiring September bean and meal contracts are trading higher, which may reflect persistently strong soy demand. However, the latest weather forecasts imply diminished chances of major frost damage to beans this weekend, so traders are reacting accordingly. November soybean futures tumbled 6.75 cents to $10.1475/bushel late Monday morning, while October soyoil dropped 0.20 cents to 32.08 cents/pound, and October soymeal skidded $2.6 to $354.7/ton.

Limited Ukraine news may be depressing the wheat markets. Concerns about possible weekend events probably boosted grain futures last Friday. Things weren’t all that quiet, but there was no major news either. The lack of hostile activity, as well as reduced frost threat, may partially explain the early dip in wheat futures this morning. December CBOT wheat slumped 3.5 cents to $5.3175/bushel by late Monday morning, while December KC wheat slid 1.75 cents to $6.2675/bushel, and December MWE wheat sank 3.5 to $6.08.

Cattle futures are taking a break after last week’s big gains. Cash cattle prices exceeded bullish expectations last week, thereby powering a big late-week CME advance. Traders now wonder if the market can build upon those gains; today’s action suggests they’re undecided. October live cattle futures dove 0.70 cents to 159.05 cents/pound late Monday morning, while December futures rose 0.12 to 161.05. Meanwhile, October feeder futures advanced 0.67 cents to 225.05 cents/pound, and January feeders gained 0.47 to 217.02.

Hog traders seem more optimistic about deferred prospects. October hog futures led the way upward last week as traders anticipated a short-term bounce. However, the market seems to think the October surge was overdone, but rising prices in the deferred contrasts suggests renewed confidence about the intermediate-term outlook. October hogs plunged 2.25 cents to 103.40 cents/pound just before lunchtime Monday, while December climbed 0.50 to 95.95.