Ag markets moved mostly lower Monday

Reduced frost risk undercut the crop markets Monday. The lack of action in the Black Sea region probably depressed the grain markets today, but the early revision to the weather forecast seems more important at this point. That is, the anticipated freeze line on the weekend weather forecasts moved northward, thereby reducing the potential damage to the corn and soybean crops. December corn futures fell 7.75 cents to $3.4825/bushel at their Monday close, while May lost 7.25 to $3.695.

The weather forecast also depressed the soy complex. The expiring September bean and meal contracts traded higher Monday, which likely reflected persistently strong soy demand. However, the latest weather forecasts imply diminished chances of major frost damage to beans this weekend, so traders reacted accordingly. November soybean futures tumbled 13.0 cents to $10.085/bushel Monday afternoon, while October soyoil dropped 0.32 cents to 31.96 cents/pound, and October soymeal skidded $4.2 to $353.1/ton.

Limited Ukraine news may have depressed the wheat markets. Concerns about possible weekend events probably boosted grain futures last Friday. Things weren’t all that quiet, but there was no major news either. The lack of hostile activity, as well as reduced frost threat, seemingly explains the dip in wheat futures. Ideas that high-quality winter wheat will be needed to offset poor quality spring wheat appears to be boosting KC prices. December CBOT wheat settled down 1.75 cents to $5.335/bushel Monday, while December KC wheat rose 0.5 cent to $6.29/bushel, and December MWE wheat sank 0.75 to $6.1075.

Cattle futures took a break after last week’s big gains. Cash cattle prices exceeded bullish expectations last Friday, thereby powering a big late-week CME advance. Traders now wonder if the market can build upon those gains; today’s action suggests they’re undecided. October live cattle futures dove 1.22 cents to 158.52 cents/pound in late Monday trading, while December futures slipped 0.08 to 160.85. Meanwhile, October feeder futures surged 1.55 cents to 225.92 cents/pound, and January feeders advanced 1.42 to 217.97.

Hog traders seemed more optimistic about deferred prospects. October hog futures led the way upward last week as traders anticipated a short-term bounce. However, the market seems to think the October surge was overdone, whereas rising prices in the deferred contrasts suggested renewed confidence about the intermediate-term outlook. October hogs plunged 2.55 cents to 103.07 cents/pound as Monday’s CME session ended, while December climbed 0.60 to 96.05.