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Tuesday's early meal reversal weighed on crop markets

by Doane Advisory Services
| October 28, 2014 9:00 AM

Talk of slow harvesting is again boosting corn futures. Soybeans and meal led the crop markets higher overnight, but have set back from their highs. However, that has done little to discourage corn bulls, who reportedly were encouraged by the persistently slow harvest. December corn futures climbed 4.75 cents to $3.6775/bushel late Monday morning, while May added 4.0 to $3.895.

The soymeal rally seemingly ran out of steam Tuesday morning. Beans and meal soared again overnight, but have set back substantially from their early highs. Wire service reports blamed profit-taking and weakness in deferred futures for the meal reversal. Oil is likely benefiting from the meal weakness on crush spread shifts. November soybean futures surged 6.0 cents to $10.12/bushel around midsession Tuesday, while December soyoil jumped 0.55 cents to 32.78 cents/pound, and December soymeal gained $2.9 to $379.7/ton.

The wheat markets are performing quite well. Strength spilling over from the soy complex obviously supported the wheat markets overnight, but golden grain prices remained comparatively firm in late-morning action. The surprisingly low winter wheat condition rating on the Crop Progress report and a report arguing that Australian production will fall 5% short of forecasts are probably encouraging bulls. December CBOT wheat rallied 8.75 cents to $5.315/bushel as lunchtime loomed Tuesday, while December KC wheat advanced 8.0 cents to $6.0275/bushel, and December MWE wheat lifted 6.0 to $5.7775.

Cattle futures are trading mixed Tuesday morning. The cattle market resumed its mixed trading when the GLOBEX commenced at 8:00 AM this morning. (Again, CME electronic trading hours have changed.) Monday’s beef firmness may be offsetting bearish seasonal ideas ahead of Thanksgiving. December live cattle futures edged up 0.05 cents to 167.87 cents/pound in late Tuesday morning action, while April futures slid 0.37 to 165.90. Meanwhile, November feeder cattle futures fell 0.95 cents to 233.85 cents/pound, and January feeders sagged 0.45 cents to 229.00.

Hopes of tightening supplies may be spurring CME hog buying. The cash hog and wholesale pork markets reportedly resumed their recent bearish pattern Tuesday morning, but that seemingly did little to discourage CME bulls buying the discounted December future. They are probably hoping for comparatively tight fall supplies. December hog futures vaulted 1.25 cents to 90.30 cents/pound late Tuesday morning, while April hogs rallied 1.10 to 89.40.