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Ag markets proved generally mixed Friday morning

by Doane Advisory Services
| October 17, 2014 9:04 AM

Traders are citing harvest pressure on corn and soybeans. Corn futures acted surprisingly well Thursday night, but have followed soybeans lower this morning. Wire service sources cited fresh harvest pressure for the losses. Still the corn drop is pretty surprising, since early news of a big sale was supplemented by a huge total on the weekly USDA Export Sales report. December corn futures sagged 2.25 cents to $3.50/bushel late Friday morning, while May slipped 2.25 to $3.72.

The soy complex has moved unanimously lower. As indicated above, selling associated with the renewed harvesting is apparently weighing on soybean and product futures. One might blame a relatively low meal total on the Export Sales report for that market’s downturn, but the bean and oil totals were comparatively strong. Observers still have to suspect that the nearby beans and oil contracts are struggling technical resistance around their 40-day moving averages, especially with stocks and energy futures rallying. November soybean futures dropped 9.0 cents to $9.575/bushel shortly before midday Friday, while December soyoil lost 0.27 cents to 32.09 cents/pound, and December soymeal sank $2.2 to $332.4.

The wheat markets continue performing relatively well. The lack of harvest pressure may be one reason the wheat markets continue outperforming corn and soybeans, but we’re also inclined to cite the moderating of the bearish global numbers on last week’s WASDE report. Trading funds holding massive bearish positions are probably taking profits as well. December CBOT wheat rose 3.25 cents to $5.2025/bushel just before lunchtime Friday, while December KC wheat climbed 2.25 cents to $6.0725/bushel, but December MWE wheat gained 1.25 to $5.7775.

Big beef losses seemed to spark cattle selling. The cattle market surged Thursday afternoon as the stock market rebounded from its mid-week lows. However, CME bulls have given back a big portion of the move, which probably reflects the late drop in choice beef cutout and worries about seasonal weakness. December live cattle futures tumbled 0.82 cents to 164.47 cents/pound Thursday night, while April futures dove 1.07 to 161.37. Meanwhile, November feeder cattle futures plummeted 2.92 cents to 234.22 cents/pound and January feeders plunged 2.82 to 228.30.

Hog futures posted a decidedly mixed Friday morning performance. Cash hog and pork prices have come under increasing pressure this week. As one would expect, that’s depressing the nearby December contract. Traders may be rolling out of long December positions into 2015 futures. December hog futures dipped 0.50 cents to 89.82 cents/pound around midsession Friday, but April hogs bounced 0.82 to 87.27.

Horrid export data undercut cotton futures. The cotton market rallied Thursday night as traders anticipated a big equity market surge this morning. However, the weekly Export Sales report indicated very little cotton was sold last week, thereby triggering a sharp ICE reversal. December cotton futures fell 0.48 cents to 63.08 cents/pound shortly before noon (EDT) Friday, while March futures slid 0.03 cents to 61.68.