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Ag markets diverged significantly Tuesday

by Doane Advisory Services
| October 14, 2014 1:00 PM

Corn futures reacted well to the Export Inspections data. Talk of harvest delays and production losses appeared to boost the corn market again Tuesday. Prices got added support from the USDA Export Inspections report, since the corn total topped increased forecasts. Bulls pushed December prices over their 40-day moving average, which triggered technical buying. December corn futures surged 11.0 cents to $3.57/bushel in late Tuesday trading, while May ran up 11.5 cents to $3.79.

Bean and meal futures posted another strong showing Tuesday. Soybeans and meal moved higher, thereby seeming to reflect persistently robust demand. Worries about the negative production impact of ongoing harvest delays probably encouraged bulls, as did the big result on the Export Inspections report. However, diving crude oil prices depressed soyoil values. November soybean futures jumped 19.5 cents to $9.6475/bushel at their Tuesday settlement, while December soyoil tumbled 0.17 cents to 32.87 cents/pound, and December soymeal advanced $6.0 at $324.0.

The wheat markets followed corn and beans higher Tuesday. After trading weakly Monday night, wheat futures seemed to rebound in concert with corn and beans today. The wheat number on the export report disappointed, but bears proved unable to keep up the selling pressure despite the loss of upward momentum in the equity market recovery. December CBOT wheat closed up 4.0 cents at $5.0925/bushel Tuesday, while December KC wheat rose 6.0 cents to $5.9025/bushel, and December MWE wheat rallied 5.5 to $5.6425.

Cattle traders apparently expect late-October price weakness. Monday’s big stock breakdown got the cattle market off to a poor start today, but bulls couldn’t generate a positive response to the morning equity market rebound. Indeed, one the stock market lost its upward momentum, cattle futures fell rather drastically on concerns about the economic outlook and potential late-2014 weakness. December live cattle futures plunged 2.77 cents to 163.92 cents/pound as Tuesday’s pit session ended, while April futures dove 3.00 to 162.90. Meanwhile, November feeder futures plummeted 3.00 cents to 237.15, as did January feeders which fell to 231.12.

Hog futures bounced from technical support. Concerns about a seasonal drop in cash hog and wholesale pork markets sent CME hogs tumbling in early Tuesday trading. However, bears couldn’t push the most-active December future below chart support associated with its 40-day moving average, which apparently triggered a sizeable recovery. December hogs ended Tuesday having risen 0.30 cents to 94.92 cents/pound, while April added 0.15 to 92.00.