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Ag markets moved almost universally higher Monday morning

by Doane Advisory Services
| October 6, 2014 8:45 AM

Export Inspections probably encouraged bulls Monday morning. Rainfall over the central U.S. is likely to slow the U.S. fall harvest rather significantly, thereby potentially reducing yields. The frost that hit the central Plains over the weekend also raised quality concerns. The strong results on the Export Inspections report are also encouraging buying. December corn futures climbed 6.75 cents to $3.30/bushel late Monday morning, while May added 6.75 to $3.5175.

The same factors are powering soy gains. Delays in the soybean harvest may be more serious than those for corn, since the former usually comes later. That fact, along the very strong result on the Export Inspections report seems to be driving the soy complex higher. Asian palm strength seemed to spark significant soyoil buying as well. November soybean futures surged 24.0 cents to $9.3625/bushel around midsession Monday, while December soyoil soared 1.01 cents to 33.43 cents/pound, and December soymeal gained $8.2 to $307.0/ton.

The wheat markets are rallying as well. The golden grain markets are rising in concert with the other crops to start the week. Russia’s apparent exit from the global wheat markets and last Friday’s news of a relatively small Canadian crop are probably encouraging bulls. The Export Inspections data also looked supportive. December CBOT wheat rose 5.0 cents to $4.9075/bushel as the lunch hour loomed Monday, while December KC wheat moved up 6.25 cents to $5.7425/bushel, and December MWE wheat gained 6.5 to $5.50.

Cattle futures are responding to Friday’s cash strength. Cash cattle traded in the $160-$162/cwt last Friday afternoon, which apparently sparked today’s strong CME opening. However, the market may actually have been anticipating are larger country price increase, which probably limited the size of the Chicago advance later in the morning. December live cattle futures lifted 0.12 cents to 166.07 cents/pound just before lunchtime Monday, while April futures ran up 0.45 to 164.75. Meanwhile, November feeder futures dove 1.42 cents to 239.55 cents/pound and January feeders plunged 1.55 to 233.17.

Rising pork prices apparently sparked fresh hog gains. News that the CME lean hog index will probably drop when it was published this morning sank hog futures last Friday. However, the pork prices rose strongly later in the day, which seemingly sparked fresh optimism about the short-term cash outlook. December hogs jumped 1.67 cents to 94.70 cents/pound late Friday morning, while April rallied 1.05 to 92.35.