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Grain and soy futures diverged from the other ag markets Thursday

by Doane Advisory Services
| November 20, 2014 12:30 PM

Export news boosted corn and beans Thursday. The corn market built upon modest overnight gains this morning after the weekly USDA Export Sales report stated the corn total well above expectations. That news was followed by a daily system report of a 101,600 sale to an unknown destination. December corn futures rallied 10.0 cents to $3.7325/bushel at Thursday’s CBOT close, while May rose 10.0 to $3.95.

The soy complex also reacted well to the news. Although the soybean export sales number on the report fell well short of forecasts, the shipments total and the meal sales result were extremely large. Those figures, as well as the subsequent announcement of a daily bean sale of 140,000 tonnes to ‘unknown,’ apparently spurred across-the-board gains. January soybean futures advanced 15.75 cents to $10.205/bushel late in Thursday’s session, while December soyoil bounced 0.16 cents to 32.67 cents/pound, and December meal gained $0.4 to $370.8/ton.

The wheat markets also rallied despite mediocre export results. Suspicions that U.S. wheat would again be shut out of an Egyptian tender were confirmed this morning and the weekly export sales figure came in toward the lower end of the forecast range. Nevertheless, wheat futures posted some rather impressive gains along with corn and beans. December CBOT wheat ended Thursday having climbed 9.5 cents to $5.4725/bushel, while December KC wheat surged 16.0 cents to $6.0225/bushel, and December MWE wheat ran up 13.0 to $5.845.

Cattle futures traded mixed Thursday. Despite strong fundamentals and wintry weather in mid-November, as well as another rise in cutouts at midsession, the nearby cattle contracts dipped today. Conversely, deferred futures still seemed to reflect the potential for persistent strength through much of 2015. December live cattle futures dropped 0.57 to 170.25 cents/pound in late Thursday action, while April futures gained 0.10 to 170.30. Meanwhile, January feeder cattle futures plunged 1.52 cents to 235.57 cents/pound, and March feeders plummeted 1.60 to 233.72.

Pork weakness again undercut CME hogs. Although cash hog prices have edged upward lately, pork quotes remain under considerable pressure. Wednesday’s late news to that effect triggered strong selling this morning. Conversely, talk that this week’s kill will only slightly exceed last week’s low total may have limited losses. December hog futures dove 1.00 cent to 90.77 cents/pound as Thursday’s pit session ended, while April hogs tumbled 0.85 to 92.75.

Cotton suffered a technical drop after failing at resistance. The weekly USDA Export Sales report seemed supportive of the cotton market, since last week’s sales result topped comparable week-ago and four-week average figures by 9% and 41%, respectively. However, the expiring December future led the 2015 contracts lower after failing at this week’s highs. December cotton fell 0.57 cents to 58.54 at its ICE settlement Thursday afternoon, while March futures dipped 0.24 cents to 58.86.