Will Grant County's growth spurt continue?

For the past quarter century, Grant County's population numbers have been on a tear. This pace might be obvious to those who have lived here over these years but will probably surprise newcomers and other Washingtonians. The most recent headcount, taken in April of this year, estimated that nearly 93,000 residents live within the borders of the state's fourth largest county by land mass. As this very first indicator on the Grant County Trends Website illustrates (found at www.grantcountytrends.ewu.edu/graph.cfm?id=1), that count stood at slightly over 52,500 in 1989. (Click on People category to find it.)

A quick look at the graph (1.1) shows that Grant County's population growth rate (in brown) has consistently run higher, sometimes much higher, than the state growth rate (in green). Both Washington state and the county have added people at a higher clip than the U.S. (in black). Among all the counties in the state, only two - Clark and Franklin - have added residents at faster speeds to the 1989 population base. If the same compound growth rate continues into the future, by 2020 Grant County will join the club of currently 12 counties in the state with populations of at least 100,000.

What can explain this surge of 40,000 more heads in the county? The obvious answer lies in the impressive growth of jobs. Over the same period, the county has added nearly 13,000 jobs, as indicator 3.19 (in Economic Vitality category) displays. People follow jobs.

But another important reason lies in the rate at which births in Grant County have outpaced deaths. Recently, this "natural increase" has amounted to over 1 percent of the total population every year. That's twice the rate of the state as a whole. Clearly, county residents enjoy adding to their families or are living much longer lives. (The former is a little more likely.) Evidence for this explanation can be found in another indicator in the People category, "Average Household Size." In the Grant County context, households are largely synonymous with families. And the most recent data show an average size of more than three people per household, in contrast to the Washington state average of about 2.5 people.

Other population drivers exist throughout the state. These include the student count at four-year colleges and universities as well as prison inmates. But Grant County doesn't have these components in any abundance.

What are the consequences of rapid population growth? In some cases, they can be negative, such as overcrowding of publicly-funded services, especially schools. Yet, if population growth is truly a consequence of job creation, then the overall effects should be positive. Especially if that job creation is accompanied by higher wages and incomes. It would be good to hear from readers to learn how, on balance, you see the impact of population growth of the last quarter century in the county. I will take up indicators that measure wages and income in a future column. Until then, enjoy the insights from Grant County Trends.

D. Patrick Jones is the executive director of Eastern Washington University's Institute for Public Policy & Economic Analysis. The Grant County Trends Website was made possible by the following sponsors: Grant County Economic Development Council, Columbia Basin Foundation, Columbia Basin Herald, Grant County Health District and Moses Lake Chamber of Commerce.