Just how big is the 2014 corn crop? USDA sees record harvest

Cool, ideal summer weather set high expectations for the country’s corn crop, and the USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report shows just how much the crop benefited.

In Tuesday’s report, the USDA forecast 2014-2015 corn production at a record 14.03 billion bushels, 172 million bushels higher than forecast in the USDA's July report.

“The first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 167.4 bushels per acre, is up 2.1 bushels from last month’s trend-based projection,” the USDA wrote.

The report also projected

• Record corn supplies for 2014-2015 at 15.24 billion bushels, with an increase in production partly offset by a 65-million-bushel reduction in beginning stocks;
• An increase in corn use for ethanol and exports by 45 million bushels and 20 million bushels, respectively, for 2013-2014;
• Slightly higher ending stocks for 2014-2015; and 
• Lower season-average farm price, which is expected to range between $3.55 and $4.25 per bushel.

For soybeans, the USDA forecasts production to top 3.8 billion bushel due to a higher yield, which is projected at a record 45.4 bushels per acre. The season-average soybean price is expected to range between $9.35 and $11.35 per bushel, down 15 cents on both ends of the range.

The USDA sees reduced soybean imports and increased exports for 2013-2014.

“Imports are lowered 5 million bushels to 80 million based in part on revised import data for September – December 2013 from the U.S. Department of Commerce,” the USDA wrote. “Exports are raised 20 million bushels to 1,640 million reflecting both revised export data for September through December 2013 from the Department of Commerce and inspections data for July 2014. These changes are offset with lower residual use, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 140 million bushels.”