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Crop markets weak, livestock prices plunging on Thursday

by Doane Advisory Services
| August 7, 2014 10:00 PM

The Export Inspections data is weighing on the crop markets. The prospects of huge fall supplies depressed the grain and soy complexes Wednesday night. Today’s early USDA Export Sales report caused additional corn losses, since the results were near the lower end of forecast ranges. September corn slid 5.25 cents to $3.58/bushel late Thursday morning, while December slumped 4.5 to $3.6975.

The soy complex moved mostly lower Thursday morning. Predictions for a record-smashing fall bean crop are hanging over new crop soy futures. Traders were probably disappointed with Export Sales totals for beans. However, the meal sales figures, particularly for old-crop product, were strong, thereby supporting the nearby bean and meal contracts. September soybean futures dipped 4.0 cents to $10.925/bushel around midsession Thursday, while November futures lost 8.0 cents to $10.72. September soyoil dropped 0.35 cents to 35.51 cents/pound, whereas September soymeal added $1.3 to $362.3/ton.

The wheat markets remain weak. After having staged a substantial rally over the past week, wheat futures have set back from Wednesday’s highs. Profit-taking in the wake of the move, as well as a mediocre export result appear to be dragging prices downward, whereas, the volatile Black Sea situation and its potential impact on the global wheat market are probably limiting losses. September CBOT wheat sagged 3.75 cents to $5.6425/bushel in midday Thursday action, while September KC wheat fell 5.5 cents to $6.5075/bushel, and September MWE wheat sank 2.0 to $6.41.

Cash weakness is undercutting cattle futures. News that fed cattle traded lightly at $164.00/cwt (cents/pound) in Nebraska Wednesday afternoon seemed to trigger aggressive CME sales this morning. Traders probably view that news, as well as concurrent beef price slippage, as signaling larger short-term losses. October live cattle plunged 2.90 cents to 153.05 cents/pound in late Thursday-morning trading, while December dove 2.30 to 153.60. Meanwhile, September feeder futures crashed 3.00 cents to 217.72 cents/pound, and November feeders plummeted 3.00 to 215.15.

Hog futures accelerated downward. Although the cash hog markets were surprisingly firm Tuesday, big pork losses set the stage for continued losses. Ideas along that line, as well as concurrent cattle/beef losses apparently spurred increased selling in the CME pit this morning. October hog futures tanked 2.50 cents to 99.70 cents/pound just before lunchtime Thursday, while December tumbled 2.57 cents to 92.22.