EDITORIAL: Much longer stay

As our troops have just spent another Christmas in Afghanistan, there should be no surprise that the US commander in Kabul has sent what is described as the most emphatic signal yet from a senior American official that foreign forces will be needed long after the 2014 deadline set by President Barack Obama. General John R. Allen has emphasized the requirement for a long-term commitment beyond that date. As events unfold in Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan and the spectre of sectarian bloodletting and political upheaval between Sunni and Shia (manipulated by meddlesome Iran) tragically returns to Baghdad after the departure of US forces, it is difficult to question this projection.

The AfPak theatre of conflict, as it is called, is in a profound mess.

In Islamabad, the unpopular President, Asif Ali Zardari, leads a lackluster government, and the army, Pakistan's most powerful institution, appears to be working toward another coup d'etat. Pakistan's relations with Washington have plunged to an unprecedented low, and the consequences for Afghanistan could be dire.

Vital NATO supply routes through Pakistan have been closed because of Islamabad's outrage over last month's US raid that killed 26 Pakistani soldiers. Intelligence co-operation has become nonexistent as Pakistani leaders, civilian and military, espouse anti-U.S. rhetoric and do nothing to curb the co-operation between their notorious ISI spy agency and the Islamic militants.

General Allen's doleful assessment of the long-term need for foreign forces beyond 2014 could hardly be more timely, too, given the speed with which the government of Iraq has started unraveling.

There is an urgent need for Western leaders to come to grips with the politics of the conflict, especially those of Pakistan. Otherwise, progress toward even the 2014 deadline set by Obama will be difficult to achieve.

- The Australian, Sydney