Economist: Grant County 'strong, slowing' in May

by Matthew Weaver<br>Herald Senior Staff Writer
| July 1, 2008 9:00 PM

GRANT COUNTY - A Wenatchee-based regional labor economist found Grant County's non-farm employment report showed a "strong but slowing" economy in May 2008.

Compared to May 2007, 790 new jobs were added as the year-over-year pace of growth outpaced the state's growth pace for the third consecutive year, regional labor economist Tihamiyou Baba-Moussa reported.

Between April 2008 and May 2008, the labor market posted its fourth consecutive month-over-month job gain. Baba-Moussa said 540 jobs were added in Grant County, a 2 percent increase.

With revised April figures, Grant County nonfarm employment expanded 0.5 percent, or 130 jobs, in February; 1.3 percent, or 340 jobs, in March and 2 percent, or 530 jobs, in April.

The state expanded at a slower pace, Baba-Moussa stated, with a growth rate of one-half percent in March, four-tenths of a percent in April and seven-tenths of a percent in May.

"Strong means what?" Baba-Moussa asked. "It means we are growing, which means we are adding jobs."

Whether slow growth is more beneficial than faster growth depends on the circumstances, he added, comparing an extremely fast rate of growth to a car overheating.

"We are actually doing much better than many regions, not only in the state, but also in the whole nation," Baba-Moussa said. "At least we are creating jobs."

Baba-Moussa also reported:

Grant County's service-providing sector, which includes a number of such subsectors as information and financial activities, leisure and hospitality and government, in April 2008 to May 2008, posted a higher growth rate than the state for the third consecutive month and the year-ago total. Over the month, jobs expanded by 500, a 2.3 percent increase following an upturn of 410 jobs in April and 310 in March. Over the year, 430 jobs were added in Grant County, a 2-percent change and six-tenths of a percent higher than the state.

With a 2 percent annual growth rate and 100 jobs added between April and May 2008, the growth rate in Grant County's information and financial activities industry declined over year-ago totals but outperformed the state for the third consecutive year. Grant County posted a growth rate of 8.9 percent in 2006, 4.1 percent in 2007 and 2 percent in 2008. Over the last month, job growth edged up two-tenths of a percent in the state, while it increased by 1.0 percent in Grant County.

In May 2008, employers in Grant County's government sector added 150 jobs, up from a previous employment level of 7,610 in May 2007. The 150-job increase represents a growth rate of 2 percent, a better performance than the state's 1.1 percent gain, and follows a percentage change of 2.1 in May 2007 and 0.7 in May 2006. In the county, 50 jobs were added in March 2008, 20 in April 2008 and 140 in May 2008.

Employment in Grant County's trade, transportation and utilities sector posted a 20-paycheck decline, a downturn of four-tenths of a percentage point between April 2006 and May 2008. In April, 40 jobs were last. Compared to a year earlier, no change was posted and employment remained at 5,240 in May 2008.

Grant County's goods producing industry gained 350 jobs during the last 12 months, a lower performance than a 620-job upturn in 2007. In the last three months, 50 jobs were added in May, 110 in April and 40 in March.

The unemployment rate in Grant County increased to its second-lowest May rate since 1990. The unemployment rate rose to 6 percent, or 1 percentage point above the May 2007 rate. In the last month the unemployment rate edged up two-tenths of a percentage point from the revised April rate of 5.8. At the same time, the number of residents out of work and actively seeking employment grew from 1,950 in May 2007 to 2,390 in May 2008, up 440 out of a total labor force of 39,840. The state's jobless rate was up nine-tenths of 1 percent compared to a May 2007 rate of 4.2 percent and increased five-tenths of 1 percent from April 2008.

Baba-Moussa stated the unemployment rate can be affected by changes in the labor force participation rate, a ratio of the total labor force divided by the population aged 16 and older. The makeup of the labor force changes over time, he added, noting new graduates join the work force for the first time as others currently employed retire. At times, job seekers may be in or out of the labor force, depending upon the state of the economy and their hope of finding a job.

"All these facts suggest that the unemployment rate does not and should not be expected to respond one-for-one to changes in employment," Baba-Moussa stated. "When employment expands, not all the added jobs are filled by the previously unemployed. Some of the openings may be filled by residents who just joined the labor force, while others are taken by previously discouraged workers who previously were not counted as part of the labor force."

If new workers or parents of first-time employees ever want assistance, Baba-Moussa recommended they contact the Moses Lake office of WorkSource, located at 309 E. Fifth Ave., or by telephone at 509-766-4105.