Population growth in ML slow, steady

City reaches, surpasses 16,000 mark

The green signs welcoming people to Moses Lake have a brand new number on them, signaling the city's growth and opening the door to many questions.

For two years, the population of the city stood at 15,442. Now, alert citizens have noticed that the number has been changed, bumped up to 16,110. Although the increase is not big enough to create great alarm or concern, there is a story behind the 668 new residents in the Blue Heron City.

Experts and city authorities are adamant in saying that the new number is just an estimate, a projection by the Office of Financial Management of the state of Washington, in conjunction with the city.

This population estimate is not based on an annual in-city census. Instead, Moses Lake City Manager Joe Gavinski explained, the projections are based on the number of new water hook-ups and building permits issued by the city, in order to calculate or forecast the growth of the population.

Theresa Lowe, a demographer for the state's OFM further explained the process, by saying that what the OFM does is not a mini-census each year, but instead, it bases its predictions on a number of other factors. Nonetheless, the data gathered from the census "is our starting point," she said.

These factors change depending on the area hoping to be measured, she said. In counties and states, the issuance of drivers' licenses as well as the number of births and deaths can be counted upon to determine a population. Not so with a city.

"With a city you are very limited," she said, adding that housing change is one method used to determine population change.

"You estimate people in housing by the amount of hosing changes," she said. "Because we have had so much building lately, in order to get an accurate estimate of the population, we have to rate the vacancy rate and the household size."

The census comes into play when determined what has been built, and demolished or converted since the census, and it is multiplied or divided by the average household size, the average number of people per household. That is how the projections are reached, Lowe said.

The results of this year's estimates, released at the first council meeting of July tell several stories regarding the future of the city, Gavinski said.

First, the figure of 16,110 indicates the city is within range of the 3 percent growth estimated by the Growth Management Plan of 2001.

"It shows that the GMP was a good choice," Gavinski said.

It shows that the city is inching closer to the 20,000-plateau, as well, which is projected to be reached within five to eight years. The milestone brings along added responsibilities.

With 20,000 within the city limits, matters such as the control of certain stoplights on state roads pass on to the hands of the city.

Financial projections are important, as some big retailers pay no mind to cities until its populace has grown up to a certain point.

The issue of growth is rather important, Gavinski said, due to the state-shared revenue that is at stake.

Judy Cox, financial consultant for the Municipal Research Service Center in Seattle said that cities get more per capita revenue according to their growth in population.

The estimate for 2005, she said, is approximately $33.18 per capita. The more people a city has, the more revenue it receives, although it may also mean more services have to be provided, as well.

Cox did not think that would be the case for Moses Lake.

"I don't think that with a jump of 800 people is going to cost the city more," she said. "You'll probably get to keep the same number of police officers."

Size of police departments notwithstanding, the size of the state revenue pie has shrunk.

This news is making whichever amount of money cities gather even more critical, Cox said, noting that large amounts of money cities used to receive from gas tax, liquor tax and motor vehicle excise tax revenues were twice as big as they are now.